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  • Top 10 Trends of 2015
    • 1. Deepening income inequality
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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015   7. Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015   7. Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 Home
  • Report Home
  • Top 10 Trends of 2015
    • 1. Deepening income inequality
    • 2. Persistent jobless growth
    • 3. Lack of leadership
    • 4. Rising geostrategic competition
    • 5. Weakening of representative democracy
    • 6. Rising pollution in the developing world
    • 7. Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
    • 8. Intensifying nationalism
    • 9. Increasing water stress
    • 10. Growing importance of health in the economy
    • Immigration in focus: an overlooked trend?
  • Regional Challenges
    • Regional Challenges: Middle-East & North Africa
    • Regional Challenges: Europe
    • Regional Challenges: Asia
    • Regional Challenges: North America
    • Regional Challenges: Sub-Saharan Africa
    • Regional Challenges: Latin America
    • Tension points: Assessing the state of geopolitics
  • Global leadership and governance
    • A call to lead: the essential qualities for stronger leadership
    • Global Leadership Index
    • New governance architecture: strategies to change the way we lead
    • LGBT: moving towards equality
  • Future Agenda
    • Synthetic biology: Designing our existence?
    • Brain-computer interaction: Transforming our networked future?
    • Deep sea mining: The new resource frontier?
    • Emerging nuclear powers: A safe path to energy security?
    • The evolution of monetary policy: A new era for central banks?
    • Mapping the future: The future of education
    • Mapping the future: The future of work
    • Mapping the future: The future of the internet
  • About this report
    • Welcome
    • Introduction
    • Making the Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015
    • Acknowledgements
  • Browse by Topic
    • Africa
    • Asia-Pacific
    • Brain Research
    • Climate Change
    • Corruption
    • Decarbonizing Energy
    • Economics and Finance
    • Economies
    • Education
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Employment, Skills and Human Capital
    • Environment and Sustainability
    • Europe and Eurasia
    • Future of Government
    • Global Economic Imbalances
    • Global Financial System
    • Global Governance
    • Global Health and Healthcare
    • Global Issues
    • Human Rights
    • Industries
    • Internet Governance
    • Latin America
    • Middle East and North Africa
    • Migration
    • North America
    • Nuclear Security
    • Oceans
    • Science and Technology
    • Security and Governance
    • Society and Human Development
    • Water
  • Top 10 Infographics
  • Download as PDF
  • Download Chinese language version as PDF
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 Introduction | Trend 1 | Trend 2 | Trend 3 | Trend 4 | Trend 5 | Trend 6 | Trend 7 | Trend 8 | Trend 9 | Trend 10 | Immigration in focus

Houses are submerged in flood waters after Hurricane Isaac hit Braithwaite, Louisiana in 2012 © REUTERS/Sean Gardner

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  • Climate Change
  • Environment and Sustainability
  • Global Issues

Author

 

Adil Najam
Dean, The Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Climate Change

Author

 

Adil Najam
Dean, The Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Climate Change


Extreme weather events are a major consequence of climate change, and are becoming more frequent, powerful and erratic. What is needed is not just relief when disaster strikes, but adaptation to the massive effects these phenomena produce, including disease, political unrest and economic stress – issues explored elsewhere in this report. It’s obvious that adapting to – or ideally, preventing severe weather events – results in a better outcome for everyone. 

Severe weather events have dominated headlines recently, causing immense devastation. Every continent has been affected, from one of the world’s strongest storms hitting the Philippines and the widest tornado ever seen in the United States, to extreme droughts gripping central Africa, Brazil and Australia and a series of massive floods in Pakistan. 

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Severe weather events are changing people’s perception about climate change. Unfortunately climate change gets reduced to a discussion about carbon management.

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Improved computer modelling facilitates scientists’ assessment of man-made climate change on individual severe weather events, a task that’s been difficult in the past. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2014 report on climate change mitigation provided new evidence linking extreme weather events and climate change. The American Meteorological Society combined research from 92 scientists to examine 16 of the biggest weather events from 2013, concluding that global warming greatly increased the risk of severe heat waves occurring. Despite this, there’s a real failure to grasp the problem at hand. A lack of international leadership has definitely affected the development of this trend.

How did different stakeholders rank increasing occurrence of severe weather events among the list of 20 trends in the Survey on the Global Agenda?


Source: Survey on the Global Agenda 2014

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The irony of climate change is that the costs of extreme weather are highest for society’s poorest

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The irony of climate change is that the costs of extreme weather are highest for society’s poorest

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Good adaptation policy protects us against the cost of potentially gigantic disasters

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Good adaptation policy protects us against the cost of potentially gigantic disasters
The irony and cruelty of climate change is that the costs of extreme weather events are highest for society’s poorest. They are those least able to cope and least able to afford insurance. Over 90% of respondents to this year’s Survey on the Global Agenda expect Asia to be most affected by increasing severe weather events. This is significantly higher when compared to the other regions, which are rated at between 10% and 51% (each respondent named up to three regions). 

Severe weather events are changing perceptions about climate change. However, when we think of climate change we think less about its already evident impacts and instead more about emissions, particularly around energy production and carbon. Unfortunately, this means most climate change discussion gets reduced to a discussion about carbon management. Carbon management is undoubtedly the essential challenge in mitigation, but in a world defined by climate impacts and adaptation – and that’s the world we currently live in – it’s not enough to focus on carbon management alone.

What have been the economic consequences of a global increase in occurrence of severe weather events?


Source: The International Disaster Database, EM-DAT database

We need to do more, and I see a great opportunity for the private sector to take advantage. Since the challenge of response is the challenge of development, we need to turn this into an investment question. Presently, we’re only putting band aids on the problem: the disaster happens, and we express sorrow. We raise funds and send aid. We try to relieve whatever pain we can with the best intentions. Yet we still wait for the next crisis. Running from disaster to disaster just will not work.

The way to convince countries and companies to invest in climate resilience is the same as getting them to invest in mitigation. First of all, carry out ‘no regret’ spending: invest in policies that are good even if climate change adaptation wasn’t needed – infrastructure, for example. Second, find low-hanging fruits: inexpensive policies with high net gains, including disaster preparedness and early warning activities. Finally, look at long-term costs and benefits. Adaptation investments in sustainable and resilient technologies (such as saline agriculture) are just as good as clean energy investments. The other point to make is that disasters are unpredictable. The cost of potentially gigantic disasters is what good adaptation policy protects us against.

To sum up, the solution is to strengthen resilience before disaster strikes. That means investing in developments that work in the future, not just in the short-term. Costs can be high and speed of change can be slow, but long-term payoffs are impressive: for national economies, for business, and certainly for the poorest and most vulnerable populations who will suffer and pay if we fail to take these measures.

Where have severe weather events occurred in 2014?


Source: World Economic Forum, 2014

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