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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014

  • About this report
    • Introduction by Klaus Schwab
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    • 1. Rising societal tensions in the Middle East and North Africa
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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014 Home
  • Report Home
  • About this report
    • Introduction by Klaus Schwab
    • Welcome from Martina Gmür
    • Preface by Drew Gilpin Faust
    • Making the Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014
  • Top 10 trends of 2014
    • Introduction
    • 1. Rising societal tensions in the Middle East and North Africa
    • 2. Widening income disparities
    • 3. Persistent structural unemployment
    • 4. Intensifying cyber threats
    • 5. Inaction on climate change
    • 6. Diminishing confidence in economic policies
    • 7. A lack of values in leadership
    • 8. The expanding middle class in Asia
    • 9. The growing importance of megacities
    • 10. The rapid spread of misinformation online
    • In focus: The trends we need to know more about
  • Regional challenges
    • Donald Kaberuka: The cautious optimist
    • Building for the better: tackling inequality, unemployment and corruption
  • Networked thinking
    • Values
    • Employment
    • Interconnectivity, visualised
    • Interactive council map
  • Future agenda
    • The new space race
    • Mapping the future: The technologies changing our lives
    • The future of biotechnology
    • The future of shale gas
    • The future of democracy
    • The future of surveillance
    • The future of the Arctic
    • The future of multinationals
  • Browse by topic
    • Economics and Growth
    • Education
    • Energy
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Environment
    • Finance
    • Geopolitics
    • Governance
    • Health and Well-being
    • Hyperconnectivity
    • Innovation
    • Infrastructure
    • Risk
    • Sustainability
    • Society
    • Technology
    • Unemployment
    • Youth
  • Download a PDF version of this report
  • Download a calendar of 2014’s most significant events

The future of the Arctic

  • Economics and Growth
  • Energy
  • Environment
  • Risk
  • Sustainability

 

header-arctic-750


The Coast Guard Cutter Healy breaks ice during an Arctic expedition in 2009 © Reuters / US Coast Guard / Patrick Kelley / Handout

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Author

Laurence C. Smith is Professor and Chair, Department of Geography UCLA, a Member of the Global Agenda Council on the Arctic

Author

Laurence C. Smith is Professor and Chair, Department of Geography UCLA, a Member of the Global Agenda Council on the Arctic

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The effects of global climate change are hugely amplified in the Arctic

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The effects of global climate change are hugely amplified in the Arctic

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Even the North Pole will likely become traversable by ice-strengthened ships in the coming decades

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Even the North Pole will likely become traversable by ice-strengthened ships in the coming decades

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Our growing population demands more resources, motivating development in remote areas such as the Arctic

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Our growing population demands more resources, motivating development in remote areas such as the Arctic
What are the consequences of a thawing North?

The effects of global climate change are hugely amplified in the Arctic. Over the long term we can expect this iconic, frigid place to experience temperature increases much larger than the world average. This poses numerous environmental threats, including loss of polar species, increased release of greenhouse gases, and shrinking ice, wetlands and lakes.

From an economic perspective, the temperature amplification may benefit some Arctic countries, especially the five littoral states of Russia, Norway, Iceland, Canada, Greenland and the US, all of which enjoy direct access to seaways of the Arctic Ocean. Although thawing landscapes make ground activity increasingly difficult, marine operations are becoming easier during summer, owing to shrinking extent and thickness of sea ice.  In our own research at UCLA, we show that even the North Pole will likely become traversable by ice-strengthened ships in the coming decades.

From the survey

“Driven by climate change, the rapid decrease of Arctic sea ice cover should be a major international concern. For example, between 2007 and September 2012, the minimum sea ice cover retreated 18%.”

Kenneth MacLeod
Chairman, Stena Line UK and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Oceans

As the world’s richer, growing population demands ever more natural resources, rising commodity prices will motivate development in remote areas, including the Arctic. Globalisation and immigration are driving surprisingly high rates of population growth in most northern countries.  

The economic prospects will also have impacts on diplomacy. Will we see non-Arctic states aligning themselves with Arctic ones? Iceland, for example, is developing remarkably strong ties with China, including a new free-trade agreement that is quite extraordinary for a country of just 320,000 people.

These trends have created passionate debates about the future of this important region, ranging from calls for rapid oil and gas development to the creation of an Arctic park. If the region’s resources are developed, sustainability will be key.  

The world needs clear-eyed discussion about these controversial issues, including mitigation of climate change and resource extraction impacts, the role of native peoples, and the region’s growing importance to the rest of the world.

arctic-infographic-q

 

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