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  • Introduction
  • Executive Summaries
  • Global Shifts
    • Stefanie Babst, NATO – Rethinking Our Approach to Global Security
    • Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell Plc – Reframing the Climate Change Debate
    • Wayne Best, Visa Inc – Demographics and Demand
    • Jean-Claude Burgelman, European Commission – A “New Deal” on Green Growth
    • Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies – Reclaiming Legitimacy in Global Governance
    • Thomas E. Cremins, NASA – A New Space Age
    • Kristel Van der Elst, The Global Foresight Group – Rethinking Ageing
    • Tina Fordham, Citigroup – Vox Populi Risk
    • Julius Gatune, African Centre for Economic Transformation – Rethinking the Informal Economy
    • Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project – The Age of Conscious-Technology
    • Derrick Gosselin, SCK.CEN – Predictive Analytics
    • Stefan Hajkowicz, CSIRO – The Potential of the Creative Economy
    • Kathleen Hicks, CSIS – New Security Challenges Posed by Megacities
    • Claudia Juech, The Rockefeller Foundation – Economic Opportunities in the 21st Century
    • Katell Le Goulven, UNICEF – Agile Development
    • Chris Luebkeman, Arup Group Ltd – Ambient Technology in Cities
    • Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered Bank – Shifting Geo-Economic Power
    • Daizo Motoyoshi, LIXIL Group Corporation – Revival of Japan
    • Herbert Oberhänsli, Nestlé SA – Rethinking Freshwater
    • Seongwon Park, STEPI – The Rising Appeal of a De-Growth Future
    • Rafael Ramírez, University of Oxford – The Possible Future of the Economics Profession
    • Rogerio Rizzi de Oliveira, Hewlett-Packard Company – Improving the Quality of Life in Megacities
    • Nouriel Roubini, New York University – The Third Industrial Revolution
    • Francisco Sagasti, FORO Nacional Internacional – The Changing Nature of Livelihoods
    • Trudpert Schelb, Siemens AG – The Next Stage of Individualization
    • Peter Schwartz, Salesforce – Fundamental Technological Progress Driving Economic Growth
    • Angela Wilkinson, OECD – Progressing Well-Being through Inclusive Growth
    • Jill Wong, Singapore Government – The Impact of Automation on Jobs and Society
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Global Strategic Foresight Community Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Introduction
  • Executive Summaries
  • Global Shifts
    • Stefanie Babst, NATO – Rethinking Our Approach to Global Security
    • Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell Plc – Reframing the Climate Change Debate
    • Wayne Best, Visa Inc – Demographics and Demand
    • Jean-Claude Burgelman, European Commission – A “New Deal” on Green Growth
    • Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies – Reclaiming Legitimacy in Global Governance
    • Thomas E. Cremins, NASA – A New Space Age
    • Kristel Van der Elst, The Global Foresight Group – Rethinking Ageing
    • Tina Fordham, Citigroup – Vox Populi Risk
    • Julius Gatune, African Centre for Economic Transformation – Rethinking the Informal Economy
    • Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project – The Age of Conscious-Technology
    • Derrick Gosselin, SCK.CEN – Predictive Analytics
    • Stefan Hajkowicz, CSIRO – The Potential of the Creative Economy
    • Kathleen Hicks, CSIS – New Security Challenges Posed by Megacities
    • Claudia Juech, The Rockefeller Foundation – Economic Opportunities in the 21st Century
    • Katell Le Goulven, UNICEF – Agile Development
    • Chris Luebkeman, Arup Group Ltd – Ambient Technology in Cities
    • Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered Bank – Shifting Geo-Economic Power
    • Daizo Motoyoshi, LIXIL Group Corporation – Revival of Japan
    • Herbert Oberhänsli, Nestlé SA – Rethinking Freshwater
    • Seongwon Park, STEPI – The Rising Appeal of a De-Growth Future
    • Rafael Ramírez, University of Oxford – The Possible Future of the Economics Profession
    • Rogerio Rizzi de Oliveira, Hewlett-Packard Company – Improving the Quality of Life in Megacities
    • Nouriel Roubini, New York University – The Third Industrial Revolution
    • Francisco Sagasti, FORO Nacional Internacional – The Changing Nature of Livelihoods
    • Trudpert Schelb, Siemens AG – The Next Stage of Individualization
    • Peter Schwartz, Salesforce – Fundamental Technological Progress Driving Economic Growth
    • Angela Wilkinson, OECD – Progressing Well-Being through Inclusive Growth
    • Jill Wong, Singapore Government – The Impact of Automation on Jobs and Society
  • Videos
  • Acknowledgements
  • Browse by Topic
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      • Cities and Urbanization
      • Economics Growth and Development
      • Employment and Entrepreneurship
      • Environment and Sustainability
      • Science and Technology
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      • Aviation and Travel
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  • Ageing
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  • Retail Consumer Goods and Lifestyle


Rethinking Ageing
Societal Opportunities Presented by Longer and Healthier Human Lifespans

Kristel Van der Elst, The Global Foresight Group

 

The ageing population is growing in both size and capabilities. This trend, alongside the promise of advances in technology and medicine, invites us to imagine what a world in which people live longer, more active, healthier lives might look like and to shift the context of discussions on ageing from it being a burden to seeing it as an opportunity. This demographic evolution holds profound opportunities, such as: “retiring” retirement and the creation of structures which can meaningfully support the (re-)organization of people’s changing life spans; closing the gender gap as technology might allow us to redesign the biological life cycle such that women could achieve equal outcomes to men in the labour market; and building a society unprecedentedly rich in wisdom as intergenerational dialogue and collaboration might allow for a new social construct in which all generations find purpose.

 


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Disclaimer

All opinions expressed herein are those of the authors. The World Economic Forum provides an independent and impartial platform dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

Disclaimer

All opinions expressed herein are those of the authors. The World Economic Forum provides an independent and impartial platform dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

Author

 

Kristel Van der Elst
Co-founder & CEO, The Global Foresight Group

Author

 

Kristel Van der Elst
Co-founder & CEO, The Global Foresight Group

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Healthy ageing offers opportunities ranging from achieving gender parity to retiring “retirement”

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Healthy ageing offers opportunities ranging from achieving gender parity to retiring “retirement”

The ageing population is growing in both size and capabilities.5 This trend, alongside the promise of advances in technology and medicine, invites us to imagine what a world in which people live longer, more active, healthier lives might look like and to shift the context of the discussions on ageing from it being a burden to seeing it as an opportunity. 

The global population is ageing. By 2050, 2 billion will be 60+, representing 21% of the population.6

As ageing is associated with mental and physical degenerative processes, the current perception of the aged population is one of it being a burden on the productive, working age population and increasing pressure on the economy. Today’s policy responses to the challenges posed by an ageing population are within the limits of this perspective: raising the retirement age, providing continuous job training, lowering pension benefits and encouraging personal financial planning for retirement. However, these responses are unsustainable, for fiscal, economic and societal reasons. Perhaps of even greater concern, though, our thinking seems to be mired in today’s modalities. Shaped by scientific discoveries, the future might reveal a new, more positive and opportunity-driven societal framing of ageing. 

Imagine a world in which humans can enjoy cognitive and physical health on demand; where ageing cells can be switched on and off.7 A world in which we can live and remain active well beyond today’s retirement age. Advancements such as prosthetics, brain-to-computer interfaces and biological engineering could allow us to maintain or replace capabilities, while a more holistic medical approach to ageing, increased understanding of human genomics and positive effects of nutrition on health outcomes could allow us to design prolongation of healthy, productive life.

In conjunction with their increased capabilities, today’s elderly are expressing a greater willingness to remain active and productive. This demographic craves more flexible working conditions and entrepreneurial careers. In parallel, companies have begun to “re-appreciate” experienced employees and to cater towards “silver industry” consumer demands.

Above and beyond the structural shifts in consumer markets emanating from a majority of consumers becoming aged, but remaining healthy and active, demographic evolution holds even more profound opportunities.

Retiring “retirement”: In addition to the fiscal relief that might emerge from an active aged population decreasing pressure on pension schemes, this shift also offers governments and businesses the opportunity to rethink how they can meaningfully support the organization of people’s changing life spans. 

For many of us, the current organization of our life spans follows a predictable pattern: study, work, retire, expire. As we come to envision longer productive life horizons will we make different choices, for example, through fragmentation or rebalancing of our work-life duality? Will we face different constraints such as the need for significant and ongoing retraining as the economy in which we serve evolves? 

If the demand for traditional – private or public – retirement plans fades, who will be the main providers of capital building schemes to support people’s desire to have non-revenue generating periods in their lives? 

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Ageing: from a burden to opportunities

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Ageing: from a burden to opportunities

Closing the gender gap: Regeneration or other techniques might allow us to redesign the biological life cycle, offering the opportunity for women to achieve equal outcomes to men in the labour market.

Many women who pursue a professional career are compelled to spend the period between ages 20 and 40 building their professional lives, bearing children and perhaps caring for ageing parents. As more women enter the workforce, society might come to revisit ethics around interventions to postpone the “biological clock”. Case in point: Apple and Facebook have begun paying for women to freeze their eggs. With the option to significantly postpone childbearing, women could smooth out the pursuit of their professional and private aspirations over time and progress in society and in the economy on a more equal/even basis with men. 

Building a society unprecedentedly rich in wisdom: Enhanced intergenerational dialogue and collaboration might allow us to build a new social construct in which all generations find purpose. 

Currently, a tendency for intergenerational competition in a zero-sum game framework can be seen across societies. This is, for example, very observable in the labour market, where we see trade-offs between, on one side, promoting employment for young people and, on the other side, promoting experienced workers and securing retirement ages and benefits. In democratic systems, at least, the aged population as a political class is likely to win such a clash in the short term. 

As a society we need to think innovatively to find solutions to these generational trade-offs. Can we imagine a non-zero-sum game? How might we translate the richness of generational diversity into an intergenerational dividend? 

On a personal level, most of us would consider the possibility of living longer, more active, healthy lives as a fantastic opportunity. Translating this enthusiasm to the societal level fosters openings for innovative thinking on how we might create a future blessed with meaning − for all generations.

5
5 A Danish study has shown that 90-year-olds perform better in cognitive and physical performance over time. See: “Over-90s ‘defying mental decline’”. Helen Briggs for BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/health-23252763, 11 July 2013.
6
6 See: World Population Ageing 2013. 2013. New York: United Nations, xii.
7
7 In September 2014, scientists from the SALK Institute for Biological Studies discovered an on/off switch for ageing cells.
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