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  • Introduction
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  • Global Shifts
    • Stefanie Babst, NATO – Rethinking Our Approach to Global Security
    • Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell Plc – Reframing the Climate Change Debate
    • Wayne Best, Visa Inc – Demographics and Demand
    • Jean-Claude Burgelman, European Commission – A “New Deal” on Green Growth
    • Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies – Reclaiming Legitimacy in Global Governance
    • Thomas E. Cremins, NASA – A New Space Age
    • Kristel Van der Elst, The Global Foresight Group – Rethinking Ageing
    • Tina Fordham, Citigroup – Vox Populi Risk
    • Julius Gatune, African Centre for Economic Transformation – Rethinking the Informal Economy
    • Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project – The Age of Conscious-Technology
    • Derrick Gosselin, SCK.CEN – Predictive Analytics
    • Stefan Hajkowicz, CSIRO – The Potential of the Creative Economy
    • Kathleen Hicks, CSIS – New Security Challenges Posed by Megacities
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    • Chris Luebkeman, Arup Group Ltd – Ambient Technology in Cities
    • Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered Bank – Shifting Geo-Economic Power
    • Daizo Motoyoshi, LIXIL Group Corporation – Revival of Japan
    • Herbert Oberhänsli, Nestlé SA – Rethinking Freshwater
    • Seongwon Park, STEPI – The Rising Appeal of a De-Growth Future
    • Rafael Ramírez, University of Oxford – The Possible Future of the Economics Profession
    • Rogerio Rizzi de Oliveira, Hewlett-Packard Company – Improving the Quality of Life in Megacities
    • Nouriel Roubini, New York University – The Third Industrial Revolution
    • Francisco Sagasti, FORO Nacional Internacional – The Changing Nature of Livelihoods
    • Trudpert Schelb, Siemens AG – The Next Stage of Individualization
    • Peter Schwartz, Salesforce – Fundamental Technological Progress Driving Economic Growth
    • Angela Wilkinson, OECD – Progressing Well-Being through Inclusive Growth
    • Jill Wong, Singapore Government – The Impact of Automation on Jobs and Society
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Global Strategic Foresight Community Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Introduction
  • Executive Summaries
  • Global Shifts
    • Stefanie Babst, NATO – Rethinking Our Approach to Global Security
    • Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell Plc – Reframing the Climate Change Debate
    • Wayne Best, Visa Inc – Demographics and Demand
    • Jean-Claude Burgelman, European Commission – A “New Deal” on Green Growth
    • Jakkie Cilliers, Institute for Security Studies – Reclaiming Legitimacy in Global Governance
    • Thomas E. Cremins, NASA – A New Space Age
    • Kristel Van der Elst, The Global Foresight Group – Rethinking Ageing
    • Tina Fordham, Citigroup – Vox Populi Risk
    • Julius Gatune, African Centre for Economic Transformation – Rethinking the Informal Economy
    • Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project – The Age of Conscious-Technology
    • Derrick Gosselin, SCK.CEN – Predictive Analytics
    • Stefan Hajkowicz, CSIRO – The Potential of the Creative Economy
    • Kathleen Hicks, CSIS – New Security Challenges Posed by Megacities
    • Claudia Juech, The Rockefeller Foundation – Economic Opportunities in the 21st Century
    • Katell Le Goulven, UNICEF – Agile Development
    • Chris Luebkeman, Arup Group Ltd – Ambient Technology in Cities
    • Marios Maratheftis, Standard Chartered Bank – Shifting Geo-Economic Power
    • Daizo Motoyoshi, LIXIL Group Corporation – Revival of Japan
    • Herbert Oberhänsli, Nestlé SA – Rethinking Freshwater
    • Seongwon Park, STEPI – The Rising Appeal of a De-Growth Future
    • Rafael Ramírez, University of Oxford – The Possible Future of the Economics Profession
    • Rogerio Rizzi de Oliveira, Hewlett-Packard Company – Improving the Quality of Life in Megacities
    • Nouriel Roubini, New York University – The Third Industrial Revolution
    • Francisco Sagasti, FORO Nacional Internacional – The Changing Nature of Livelihoods
    • Trudpert Schelb, Siemens AG – The Next Stage of Individualization
    • Peter Schwartz, Salesforce – Fundamental Technological Progress Driving Economic Growth
    • Angela Wilkinson, OECD – Progressing Well-Being through Inclusive Growth
    • Jill Wong, Singapore Government – The Impact of Automation on Jobs and Society
  • Videos
  • Acknowledgements
  • Browse by Topic
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      • Cities and Urbanization
      • Economics Growth and Development
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      • Environment and Sustainability
      • Science and Technology
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      • Engineering and Construction
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  • Economics Growth and Development


Fundamental Technological Progress Driving Economic Growth
We Are Nearer to the Beginning of Economic Growth than to Its End

Peter Schwartz, Salesforce

 

There is an active debate today about whether we have reached a structural slowdown in economic growth due to the fact that fundamental technological progress is over. This view reflects a failure of both imagination and analysis. The history of scientific and technological application shows long lead times between research and application. We may therefore only be in a transitional stage between technological leaps, which is resulting in a slowdown in the pace of growth. Current research in areas such as ICT and big data, biological and molecular engineering, and understanding gravity will create vast new technologies, whole new industries and a great many sources of economic growth. We need to think beyond restrictive mindsets and consider how to make this transition as efficient as possible.

 


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28---Schwartz

Peter Schwartz

Senior Vice-President, Global Government Relations and Strategic Planning, Salesforce

Author

28---Schwartz

Peter Schwartz

Senior Vice-President, Global Government Relations and Strategic Planning, Salesforce

Disclaimer

All opinions expressed herein are those of the authors. The World Economic Forum provides an independent and impartial platform dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

Disclaimer

All opinions expressed herein are those of the authors. The World Economic Forum provides an independent and impartial platform dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

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Skeptics see a future of slow growth: this is a failure of imagination and analysis

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Skeptics see a future of slow growth: this is a failure of imagination and analysis
There is an active economic debate today about whether we have reached a structural slowdown in economic growth due to the fact that fundamental technological progress is over. This view reflects a failure of both imagination and analysis. In fact, we can already see the foundations in science that will create vast new technologies and industries. We may be in a transitional stage, where there has been a slowdown in the pace of growth. But we have the intellectual potential to create enormous growth and it is quite likely we will do so.

The pessimists commonly make the following argument: (a) Man’s most important technological discoveries have already been made; (b) improvements in information technology do not create the same number or quality of jobs as past advancements; (c) nothing upon the horizon will generate the scale of jobs provided in the past; (d) therefore, humanity must resign itself to a future of slow growth, declining job creation and little prosperity.

This view underestimates mankind’s ability to make technological leaps because of a failure to grasp the history of scientific and technological application. Big, radical leaps in technology and science take time and develop slowly. For example, there was a roughly 50-year span from the development of quantum theory in the mid-1920s to its first practical application in the transistor in 1947, to Intel applying the theory to develop the first commercially viable microprocessor in 1974. 

There is an enormous amount of talent, treasure and tools being applied today to facilitate new technologies and scientific discoveries. Consider this astounding factoid: 95% of all scientists who have ever lived are active today. What’s more, the financial rewards have never been higher: venture capital may have its origins in support for IT, but it is now being used to seek out opportunity in other areas, such as biotech, automotive, energy and environmental technology. No good idea goes unfunded today.

Examples in three key areas point to great technological leaps that will provide economic platforms for future growth: 

ICT: With algorithmic discovery, big data can discern patterns no human can see. “Little AI”, as exemplified by Amazon’s “1-Click” feature, for example, is not in itself a major advancement. Yet, with its novel use of algorithms, “Little AI” represents a significant information technology shift nonetheless. Within 5 to 10 years, small bits of artificial intelligence will be involved in virtually everything that humans do. Not only will this increase productivity, but it will also launch a new generation of products and services. A large variety of automatic services will function in the background of human activity, coordinating, organizing and informing human interactions.

Biological and molecular engineering: The related fields of synthetic biotechnology and molecular engineering each promise new kinds of materials and enhanced properties for materials already in use. By 2050, we will have learned how to grow buildings like trees rather than with only concrete and steel. We will produce mature redwood fibre in the lab within days, not years. This and similar biotech developments will transform old industries and create entirely new ones.

Understanding gravity: There is a strong likelihood that within the next 50 years, man will come to understand gravity. Presently, we can observe the effect of gravity, but have no idea how and why it works. As coming to an understanding of electromagnetism in the 19th century led to all the fruits of the electrical and electronic age, we might presume a similar benefit from harnessing gravity. As this is at the outer edge of speculation, we can only guess what it could mean, but one could imagine anti-gravity vehicles or possibly even radical new ways of generating energy.

As a society, how can we nurture a new age of discovery? 

First and foremost, we should not panic and do the wrong things. We should not avoid transformation or protect the past − the same dystopian arguments made in the 1970s are being made today, often by the same people. Instead, we should facilitate the transition by investing in R&D, skills and capabilities. We must nurture an environment that rewards entrepreneurship, as California does with its concentrated focus on education and venture capitalism. 

There are important geopolitical implications to consider, as the sources of innovation increase around the globe. Whereas R&D used to be based solely in the United States, now emerging economies such as China, Brazil, India and Singapore are all making important R&D contributions. The Eurozone, though, in many ways seems stuck in the past with its peoples’ wholescale rejection of Google and its governments’ restrictive regulatory regimes.

Having only mentioned three big leaps in science and technology – out of the many currently in the development pipeline — we can already see some of the potential for economic growth. If we take a global perspective, then the scope of economic growth will be felt both in productivity gains in what we already do and in whole new industries that are just being born.

The sceptics are incorrect; we are not at the end of history, but somewhere near the beginning. For while there is little certainty when it comes to predicting when new technologies will bear fruit, the past tells us that they do, eventually. We need to invite people to think beyond restrictive mindsets and consider how we can make this transition as efficient as possible.

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