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Global Risks Report 2019

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  • Global Risks 2019
    • Preface
    • Executive Summary
    • Power and Values
    • Heads and Hearts
    • Going Viral
    • Fight or Flight
    • Future Shocks
      • Weather Wars
      • Open Secrets
      • City Limits
      • Against the Grain
      • Digital Panopticon
      • Tapped Out
      • Contested Space
      • Emotional Disruption
      • No Rights Left
      • Monetary Populism
    • Hindsight
    • Risk Reassessment
  • Survey Results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2019
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2019
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2019
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2019
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Press Release
Home Previous Next
Home Previous Next
Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Global Risks 2019
    • Preface
    • Executive Summary
    • Power and Values
    • Heads and Hearts
    • Going Viral
    • Fight or Flight
    • Future Shocks
      • Weather Wars
      • Open Secrets
      • City Limits
      • Against the Grain
      • Digital Panopticon
      • Tapped Out
      • Contested Space
      • Emotional Disruption
      • No Rights Left
      • Monetary Populism
    • Hindsight
    • Risk Reassessment
  • Survey Results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2019
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2019
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2019
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2019
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Press Release

Weather Wars

Use Of Weather Manipulation Tools Stokes Geopolitical Tensions

Illustration: Patrik Svensson

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Weather manipulation tools—such as cloud seeding to induce or suppress rain—are not new, but deploying them at scale is becoming easier and more affordable. As the impacts of climate-related changes in weather patterns intensify, the incentives to turn to technological fixes will increase in affected areas. Think of governments trying to manage simultaneous declines in rainfall and increases in water demand.

Aside from the potential environmental consequences, at a time of increasing geopolitical tensions even well-intentioned weather manipulation might be viewed as hostile. Perceptions would be paramount: a neighbouring state might see large-scale cloud-seeding as theft of rain or the reason for a drought. Cloud-seeding planes might be viewed as dual-use tools for espionage. Hostile uses are prohibited, but cannot be ruled out—for example, weather manipulation tools could be used to disrupt a neighbour’s agriculture or military planning. And if states decided unilaterally to use more radical geo-engineering technologies it could trigger dramatic climatic disruptions.

As technologies evolve and deployment increases, increased transparency—about who is using what, and why—would help limit destabilizing ambiguity. So too would active discussion and collaboration on environmental vulnerabilities, both bilaterally between bordering states and on wider regional and global multilateral platforms.

Future Shocks Open Secrets
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