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<Previous Next>
  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2018
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2018
    • Evolving Risk Landscape, 2008-2018
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2018
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  • Preface
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  • Global Risks 2018: Fractures, Fears and Failures
  • Economic Storm Clouds
  • Future Shocks
    • Grim Reaping
    • A Tangled Web
    • The Death of Trade
    • Democracy Buckles
    • Precision Extinction
    • Into the Abyss
    • Inequality Ingested
    • War without Rules
    • Identity Geopolitics
    • Walled Off
  • Geopolitical Power Shifts
  • Hindsight
    • Antimicrobial Resistance
    • Youth Unemployment
    • Digital Wildfires
  • Risk Reassessment
    • Resilience in complex organizations
    • Cognitive bias and risk management
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018
    • Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 2018
  • Acknowledgements
  • [—divider—]
  • Press Release
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • [—divider—]
  • Download the Report
Global Risks Report 2018 Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2018
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2018
    • Evolving Risk Landscape, 2008-2018
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2018
  • Read the Report
  • Preface
  • Executive Summary
    • Arabic
    • Chinese
    • French
    • German
    • Portuguese
    • Spanish
  • Global Risks 2018: Fractures, Fears and Failures
  • Economic Storm Clouds
  • Future Shocks
    • Grim Reaping
    • A Tangled Web
    • The Death of Trade
    • Democracy Buckles
    • Precision Extinction
    • Into the Abyss
    • Inequality Ingested
    • War without Rules
    • Identity Geopolitics
    • Walled Off
  • Geopolitical Power Shifts
  • Hindsight
    • Antimicrobial Resistance
    • Youth Unemployment
    • Digital Wildfires
  • Risk Reassessment
    • Resilience in complex organizations
    • Cognitive bias and risk management
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018
    • Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 2018
  • Acknowledgements
  • [—divider—]
  • Press Release
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • [—divider—]
  • Download the Report

The Death of Trade

Bilateral trade wars cascade and multilateral dispute resolution institutions are too weak to respond


Political commitment to globalization has weakened in the wake of the global financial crisis and even minor disputes could trigger an unravelling. Against a backdrop of deepening protectionist sentiment, trade disputes could spread rapidly by triggering adverse impacts and retaliatory moves along global value chains. The same pressures fomenting trade disputes would also undermine the already-weakened institutions designed to resolve them, potentially leading to multilateral rules being openly breached.

A breakdown of the global trade system would roil supply chains and reduce overall economic activity. Adverse impacts such as lower output and employment would be unevenly distributed within and between countries, creating new inequalities and frustrations. If this in turn fuelled more aggressive mercantilism, the risk would increase of proliferating trade-related disputes triggering deeper geopolitical tensions and policies of gunboat diplomacy on trade. 

Whatever the settled position on global trade is to be, more deliberation and consensus-building would bolster its legitimacy. A period of de-globalization may be seen by many as a welcome corrective, but rejecting current frameworks in favour of binary nationalistic approaches would cause significant disruption. Securing durable and worldwide support for globalization would be made easier by an increased domestic policy focus on cushioning the impact on individuals and regions affected by transitions in economic activity.

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