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  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
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Global Risks Report 2018 Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2018
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2018
    • Evolving Risk Landscape, 2008-2018
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2018
  • Read the Report
  • Preface
  • Executive Summary
    • Arabic
    • Chinese
    • French
    • German
    • Portuguese
    • Spanish
  • Global Risks 2018: Fractures, Fears and Failures
  • Economic Storm Clouds
  • Future Shocks
    • Grim Reaping
    • A Tangled Web
    • The Death of Trade
    • Democracy Buckles
    • Precision Extinction
    • Into the Abyss
    • Inequality Ingested
    • War without Rules
    • Identity Geopolitics
    • Walled Off
  • Geopolitical Power Shifts
  • Hindsight
    • Antimicrobial Resistance
    • Youth Unemployment
    • Digital Wildfires
  • Risk Reassessment
    • Resilience in complex organizations
    • Cognitive bias and risk management
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018
    • Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 2018
  • Acknowledgements
  • [—divider—]
  • Press Release
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • [—divider—]
  • Download the Report

Grim Reaping

Simultaneous breadbasket failures threaten sufficiency of global food supply


In a world of growing environmental strains our increasingly complex food system is becoming more vulnerable to sudden supply shocks. The interaction of disruptors such as extreme weather, political instability or crop diseases could result in a simultaneous blow to output in key food-producing regions, triggering global shortages and price spikes. The risk of a systemic breakdown could be further elevated by wider fragilities, including reduced crop diversity, competition for water from other sectors and geopolitical tensions.

Widespread fear—let alone death on a large scale—could lead to devastating spillover effects. Social fractures would intensify in affected and at-risk countries. Political and economic crises would be likely. So too would a surge in smuggling, both of food and people. Against such a volatile backdrop, cross-border tensions could worsen sharply, hampering existing humanitarian response networks, frustrating efforts to develop regional and global mitigation strategies and increasing the possibility of interstate conflict.

Even on optimistic climate-change trajectories food-supply risks will remain elevated. Steps are needed to improve sustainability and resilience throughout the food system. Among the changes that could help are increasing crop diversity, establishing stress tests of “choke points” and other national and regional vulnerabilities, reducing waste along supply chains, reaffirming humanitarian principles and commitments and establishing early warning indicators.

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