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The Global Risks Report 2017 – Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

 

What is the aim of The Global Risks Report 2017?

The Global Risks Report 2017 is a tool for stimulating dialogue among policy-makers, business executives and thought leaders around the world. It is also a call to action to improve international efforts at coordination and collaboration to equip institutions to understand, monitor, manage and mitigate global risks, prepare for them and strengthen resilience.

What risks does the report assess?

This year’s report looks at 30 global risks across five categories: economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological. It also considers how these risks relate to 13 underlying trends.

  • A global risk is defined as “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years”. A key characteristic of global risks is their potential systemic nature – they have the potential to affect an entire system, as opposed to individual parts and components.
  • Trends are defined as drivers of risks. A trend is “a long-term pattern that is currently taking place and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them”.

What are the most impactful global risks in this year’s report?

  1. Weapons of mass destruction
  2. Extreme weather events
  3. Water crises
  4. Major natural disasters
  5. Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation

What are the most likely global risks in this year’s report?

  1. Extreme weather events
  2. Large-scale involuntary migration
  3. Major natural disasters
  4. Large-scale terrorist attacks
  5. Massive incident of data fraud/theft

Which trends are the key drivers in this year’s report?

  1. Rising income and wealth disparity
  2. Changing climate
  3. Increasing polarization of societies
  4. Rising cyber dependency
  5. Ageing population

What does the report tell us about how risks are evolving?

Looking at the report published since 2007, two broad phases emerge:

  • Economic risks dominated until 2011. Immediately prior to the global financial crisis, the report highlighted the risk of an asset-price collapse, while in the wake of the crisis the risk of major systemic financial failures and fiscal crises predominated.
  • Environmental risks have become increasingly prominent in the global risks landscape since 2011, and in the 2017 report the five environmental risks are predominant in the landscape’s high-impact, high-likelihood quadrant (see chart on page 2). Environmental risks are highly interconnected with risks in other categories, notably geopolitical and societal.

Economic factors continue to play a key role in shaping the risks landscape, particularly as a driver of societal pressures. In 2017, inequality emerged as the top trend, while the most frequently cited risk interconnection was the pairing of unemployment and social instability.

What does this year’s report focus on?

The Global Risks Report 2017 comprises three parts:

  • Part 1 considers the results of the latest survey (see methodology, below). Setting the results against the backdrop of recent global societal and political developments, five key challenges are highlighted: (1) boosting economic growth and inclusiveness; (2) tackling social polarization; (3) managing technological change; (4) strengthening global cooperation; and (5) accelerating action on the environment.
  • Part 2 provides an in-depth look at social and political challenges, with chapters on (1) strains in Western democracy; (2) threats to civil society; and (3) the future of social protection systems.
  • Part 3 focuses on the implications for global risks of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. An introductory chapter summarizes the results of a special survey module on emerging technologies. This is followed by analytical chapters on the risks associated with artificial intelligence and on the world’s changing infrastructure needs and vulnerabilities.

What methodology underpins the report?

At the heart of the report is the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which collates the perspectives of almost 750 individuals drawn mainly from among the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder communities of leaders from business, government, academia and non-governmental and international organizations. The report also draws on the output of global risk workshops hosted by the World Economic Forum and it is subject to the oversight of a high-level Advisory Board.

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