1. Public Debt Crisis
A year ago, we thought we were struggling with post-crisis problems: now we seem back in crisis mode, but with a difference. The 2008 meltdown centred on excessive leverage in…
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Global Agenda Survey 2011
Global Agenda
Survey 2011
We asked Global Agenda Council members to identify the most important global trends that will likely impact the global economy, society and environment in the next 12-18 months. This presentation highlights the key findings of the survey.
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Interactive Slides
Launch survey slidesBelow are links to pages of all individual trends ordered by this
years rankings. Each page describes each trend in detail and
links to related trends and councils
Trends by prominence (1 to 20)
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2. Uncertain Economic Outlook
After being lulled into a false sense of security during the so-called great moderation, the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was a shock to the way people viewed the economic world.…
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3. Global Power Shift
Emerging and developing countries currently account for 41% of G20 GDP and 30% of global trade – by 2050, these figures could rise to nearly 70% and six of the…
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4. Digital Revolution
The spread of information/communications technology including mobile phones, social networks and increasing access to Internet, particularly in the global south. The expanding profile, number and diversity of Internet users and…
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5. Instability of Financial Markets
As we have scarcely emerged from the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the prospect of another financial crisis is truly frightening. Volatility in most asset classes, including emerging market equities, reached…
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6. Political Entrenchments
Political paralysis caused in the EU by the euro crisis and in the US by the upcoming elections. There will be little or no room for bold action (for example,…
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7. Scarcity of Resources
The increase of tensions and unanticipated consequences triggered by water security or lack thereof – energy, food, water, climate intersections. The end of abundance: environmental constraints putting serious pressure on…
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8. Climate Change
Increase in investments in climate change mitigating technologies by developed countries and by Brazil and China. Climate variability/sea level rise will likely impact the environment. Global warming is having an…
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9. Unemployment
Unemployment is one of the most serious issues facing the world today. Not only is it affecting the hundreds of millions of people out of work, but it is hurting…
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10. Inequality
An imbalance of wealth that gives unequal access to education, housing, the job market and healthcare, and as a result creates instability, especially generating anger and violence in the developing…
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11. Social Unrest
Social unrest, especially among young people whose intensity will depend a lot on how the global economy performs. Increasing violent and non-violent expressions of anger at ruling governments and elites.…
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12. Post-Arab Spring Challenges
The Arab Spring will have continuing repercussions in the Middle East, perhaps leading to more and more fragile and failing states (not necessarily a bad thing, as you have to…
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13. Price Hikes
The increase in energy and food prices globally. Fluctuations in commodity prices. Global food price volatility. Disruption of governments, further financial instability of countries, social unrest, greater economic disparity, more…
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14. Ageing
The twin demographic challenges of the ageing population in the West and the baby boom in the Arab world, Africa and elsewhere will likely general political and economic challenges in…
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15. Migration
Increase of migration flows of people fleeing poverty for lack of development. Changing demographics and habitation/location patterns of people into areas of elevated risk of disasters could be the single…
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16. Monetary Instability
Major imbalances in trade and financial flows; exchange rate discrepancies and concerns about economic stabilization between emerging and developed economies. Monetary instability caused by fiscal deficits, systemic financial failures, weak…
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17. Global Interdependency
Widespread recognition of the complexity and interdependence of global systems. Short term: Questioning the first principles and tools we use to govern global systems. Long term: Developing new tools and…
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18. Population Growth
The growing populations, especially of young people, in the poorest and most unstable parts of the world. The increase in overall world population, which is now 7 billion. The rate…
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19. Reform of the Government
Lack of structured succession planning. Countries and organizations the world over do not have a good succession plan for their existing leaders. As a result, there are two challenges: 1)…
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20. Regionalism
Geopolitical polarization – national/regional positioning and safeguarding access to natural resources. Accelerating economic and social transformations at the local and regional level, with diminishing influence of global agenda and power…
Global Agenda Councils
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Advanced Manufacturing
The global manufacturing industry is in a state of upheaval and flux. The multiple issues, opportunities and threats facing the industry will define its future. The global recession left a…
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Africa
Most African countries are demonstrating greater than expected resilience during the global economic crisis. The International Monetary Fund forecasts strong growth of 5.5% in 2011 and 5.9% in 2012, which…
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Ageing Society
The elderly population is growing at an accelerating pace. Although levels differ across countries, the share of the population aged 60 and older increased in every region of the world…
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Anti-Corruption
Corruption – the abuse of entrusted power for private gain – is the single greatest obstacle to economic and social development around the world. It distorts markets, stifles economic growth…
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Arab World
Recent shifts in the Arab world coupled with a global economic contraction have created renewed urgency for decision-makers across the region to address the emerging development challenges. Arab world governments…
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Automotive Industry
While the triad automotive markets – the United States, Europe and Japan – have recovered to pre-crisis sales and growth levels, China and the remaining BRIC markets will be the…
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Aviation, Travel & Tourism
Over the last decades, the Travel & Tourism (TT) sector has experienced continued growth and diversification, accounting for 9.1% of global GDP and 4.8% of world exports. It delivers some…
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Banking & Capital Markets
Activities in the markets over summer 2011 feel all too familiar. Some analysts even go as far as expecting a return of the panic that seized financial markets in 2008…
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Benchmarking Progress
Quantifying prosperity and societal progress in a rigorous way is an essential step towards helping governments and civil society prioritize actions and policies. Although economic growth and GDP-based measures are…
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Brain & Cognitive Sciences
The fields of brain and cognitive sciences are not sufficiently present in policy discussions concerning health, the economy or human capital formation. The brain is the organ of thought, emotion,…
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Catastrophic Risks
A catastrophic risk seriously threatens the well-being of a large number of individuals and the physical, social and economic environment in which they live. In most cases, the risk has…
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China
Despite double-digit growth in 2010, the booming Chinese economy faces increasing structural and institutional challenges. This is due to the export- and foreign direct investment-led growth model as well as…
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Climate Change
The level of investment required to transform the global economy to low-carbon is considerable. World Bank estimates put the incremental financing needs of climate mitigation at US$ 140 to US$…
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Competitiveness
The world’s countries have achieved vastly different prosperity levels. Some countries have been able to grow rapidly, providing rising living standards for their citizens over time. Others have achieved economic…
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Conflict Prevention
The complexity of contemporary conflicts calls for engagement of the business community. A major element of strategic peace building is a strong and equitable economic foundation, to which companies can…
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Design Innovation
The Council on Design Innovation aims to design new frameworks and strategies to solve global issues. The Council will build on experience from a wide variety of fields and disciplines…
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Digital Health
The health sector is a late adopter of information and telecommunication technology (ITC). Healthcare has not taken advantage of ITC’s transformative power and its potential to improve access to care,…
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Disaster Management
Droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, wildfires and other hazards affect more than 200 million people every year. Increased population densities, environmental degradation and global warming exacerbate poverty, which makes the impacts…
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Education Systems
Progress has been made to provide access to education. However, there is an urgent need to innovate and strengthen systems to provide high quality education to all and meet fast-changing…
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Emerging Multinationals
Multinationals from emerging economies are creating new dynamics in the global competitive landscape. They come primarily from rapidly-growing economies and frequently operate in challenging business environments. Emerging multinationals have often…
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Emerging Technologies
Emerging technologies are critical to building a sustainable and resilient future. But without new understanding, tools and capabilities, their safe and successful development is far from guaranteed. Over the past…
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Employment & Social Protection
The financial and economic crisis is now an unemployment crisis. Today, 34 million more people are unemployed than in 2007. An estimated 200 million more workers now live on US$…
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Energy Security
The 2011 Arab Spring, the Japanese nuclear disaster in Fukushima and the global economic crisis have had far-reaching consequences on both the supply and demand sides of the global energy…
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Europe
The past few years have highlighted a number of pressing challenges facing Europe, including the European economy; uncertainties around the future of the euro; the process of EU enlargement; policies…
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Fiscal Crises
Often a phenomenon intrinsic to emerging markets, the Greek sovereign debt crisis is the first in history to envelop a high-income country. The magnitude of public debt in most of…
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Food Security
In 2009, the global food and economic crises drove millions of additional people into food insecurity, raising the total number of hungry people to more than 1 billion. The number…
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Fostering Entrepreneurship
Only a few countries and regions have succeeded in creating an ecosystem suitable for high-growth, enabling entrepreneurial companies to develop and prosper at a large scale. These high-growth companies are…
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Fragile States
States suffering fragility are those where the national public authority is not providing the basic public goods that allow their societies to live in peace and improve their prospects for…
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Future of Government
Governments around the world operate in an increasingly complex, interconnected and fast-changing environment, faced with new demands, expectations, technologies and tools. Governments face challenges that span national borders and require…
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Genetics
Since the complete mapping of the human genome in 2003, genetics research has driven valuable discoveries for human health, energy and agriculture. New vaccines to combat disease, improved yields on…
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Geopolitical Risk
The United States has become an increasingly reluctant hegemon, one less willing and able to shoulder the costs and risks of providing global public goods to support the international system.…
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Global Trade System
The trading system needs effective and complementary governance at several levels. The regional, bilateral and unilateral components of the system are flourishing, but progress in achieving multilateral agreements is waning.…
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Health & Well-being
Lack of health and well-being are a global syndrome of the 21st century, and the result of the way economies, lifestyles and development trends have evolved over time. Poor mental…
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Healthcare
The impacts on health and healthcare of the complete mapping of the human genome and of progress in medical science are enormous. The advent of molecular diagnostic technologies, which allow…
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Human Rights
On 16 June 2011, the United Nations Human Rights Council endorsed the UN Guiding Principles for Business and Human Rights. The principles outline the responsibilities of states and companies to…
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Illicit Trade
Illicit trade involves money, goods or value gained from illegal and generally unethical activity. It encompasses a variety of illegal trading activities, including human trafficking, environmental crime, illegal trade in…
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India
As the world’s largest free market democracy and one of the fastest growing economies, India is a model for many emerging economies. However, while liberalization since 1991 has allowed India…
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Information & Communication Technologies
A unique moment in time has arrived where collaborative communication technologies are coalescing to create unprecedented opportunities for governments, private enterprise and society. As communications “mobilize”, the lives of individuals,…
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Informed Societies
In an informed society, citizens and decision-makers have access to reliable information. In today’s information society, there has been an increase in the amount and flow of various forms of…
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Infrastructure & Urban Development
Shifting urban dynamics are changing the global landscape. In 2008, the world’s population transformed from majority rural to majority urban. At the current rate, the number of urbanites will exceed…
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Institutional Governance Systems
Public, private and public-private actors and initiatives address global challenges. However, an overarching global governance system is lacking. Without structural underpinning, current global governance fails as a generator of norms,…
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Insurance
For centuries, insurance has helped individuals devise strategies to mitigate risks that cause extensive human and property losses, strain business activities and deplete wealth accumulation. Through collaborating with policy-makers, supervisors,…
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Intellectual Property System
Increasing globalization introduces complexities in international economic relations and sharpens competition among countries. The global intellectual property (IP) system is a tool for regulating and facilitating trade in information and…
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International Monetary System
The stability of the international monetary system has been challenged – it has neither been able to prevent the global economic and financial crisis nor adequately respond to it. Price…
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Internet Security
Internet security and resiliency are of paramount importance. Cyber attacks and cybercrime are on the rise and there are fears of cyber warfare. Internet security continues to be affected in…
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Japan
The Council is examining the pressing challenges facing Japan and is providing a regional perspective on the global issues on which the country can play a critical international role. Bringing…
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Korea
Korea, the Korean Peninsula and North-East Asia have undergone dramatic changes over the past few decades, including imperialism, conflict, industrialization and democratization. In addition to these pervasive changes, the uncertainty…
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Latin America
Latin America has emerged relatively unscathed from the recent global economic downturn, with a robust pace of recovery during 2010-2011 and a positive outlook for the region as a whole.…
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Logistics & Supply Chain
Globalization and outsourcing were prominent features of supply chain evolution in the years prior to the economic crisis. What changes will global supply chains and the logistics industry that serves…
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Long-term Investing
Long-term investing has received fresh attention in light of the global economic crisis. Discussion has focused on long-term investors helping to stabilize financial markets, impacting the time horizon of corporate…
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Media, Entertainment & Information
The media, entertainment and information industry informs, educates and entertains. In the midst of a dramatic transformation driven by disruptive technologies and rapidly changing consumption habits, the media industry is…
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Migration
Globally, three out of every 100 people are migrants. The breadth and depth of migration have increased significantly in the last decade as its social, cultural, political and economic implications…
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Mining & Metals
The Mining & Metals industry is crucial to the development and sustainability of technologies on which society depends. The industry affects people, communities, institutions and countries at many levels, scales…
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New Energy Architecture
The requirement to deliver low-carbon energy reliably and affordably is driving change in energy architectures at national, regional and global levels. During a private session at the World Economic Forum’s…
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New Models of Leadership
There is a growing tension between the beliefs and values of the younger generation and the way societies manage businesses and public organizations. The world today is much more interconnected…
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Nuclear, Biological & Chemical Weapons
Nuclear, biological and chemical weapons have traditionally been categorized as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) because of their potential to inflict unfathomable tolls on human, animal, and plant life. Since…
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Ocean Governance
Ocean management is a critical issue for the coming decades. Climate change, food security, industrial development, growth and geopolitics are all interrelated and require proper ocean management for achieving sustainable…
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Organized Crime
Organized crime threatens human security, hindering social, economic and political stability and development. Globalization has accelerated the growth and complexity of transnational criminal networks, which largely takes advantage of the…
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Pakistan
Pakistan’s potential is largely underexploited. The country’s location and unresolved tensions put it at the intersection of several global fault lines and underscore Islamabad’s vital importance for regional and international…
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Population Growth
Recent United Nations projections suggest that world population, currently 6.8 billion, will reach 9.1 billion by 2050. Alternative UN scenarios predict a range from 8 to 10.5 billion. Since 1950,…
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Poverty & Economic Development
Sixty years of combating poverty have produced very mixed results. A quarter of humanity still lives on less than US$ 1.25 a day. In sub-Saharan Africa, half of the population…
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Private Capital
Private fund managers – private equity and hedge and venture capital funds – have become increasingly important over the last two decades. In addition to playing a larger role in…
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Real Estate
Real estate investment, development and operations have become increasingly globalized in recent years. While most real estate firms operate on a local basis, they often benefit from capital, supplies and…
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Robotics & Smart Devices
Advances in robotics, human-machine interface technologies and artificial intelligence are moving robotics beyond the realm of industrial applications to human-centred robotics. In parallel, nanotechnology, biotechnology and advances in information communication…
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Role of Business
The environment in which today’s businesses operate has undergone a fundamental transformation in the last two decades. Increasingly, leaders in the private sector have realized that old conceptions of the…
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Rule of Law
The limitations on a single state’s ability to manage its domestic circumstances are apparent, for example when economic chaos spreads from one nation to another or where terror and organized…
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Skills & Talent Mobility
Despite high unemployment, the global economy is entering an era of talent scarcity that, if left unaddressed, will hinder economic growth worldwide. Talent gaps will increase due to demographic changes…
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Social Innovation
The Council is concerned with building enabling environments that foster, support and scale worthwhile social innovations. Social enterprises pioneer innovative models to address social and environmental challenges, including food security,…
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Social Networks
Social networks, which have dramatically changed the way people connect and communicate, have had tangible effects on individuals, society, governance, citizenship and business. They are tools to mobilize people around…
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South-East Asia
With a population of 570 million and a combined GDP of US$ 1.7 trillion, the South-East Asia region may well be a force to be reckoned with, if its countries…
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Space Security
Outer space is part of humanity’s common heritage. Today, society is more dependent on space assets to enable critical global services, such as telecommunications, navigation and positioning, and remote sensing.…
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Sustainable Consumption
Consumption is a fundamental human cultural expression, whether of hospitality, wealth, celebration or success. However, if the trend of growing consumption continues without fundamental changes in the way people think…
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Systemic Financial Resilience
The world is struggling to recover from the financial crisis. New risks have appeared in recent months that are raising political and economic concerns around the world. Global and national…
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Terrorism
Terrorism continues to disrupt peace and security worldwide. Terrorist organizations and their followers remain a security concern that requires intense international cooperation. Terrorism is often carried out by groups, networks…
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United States
As the United States enters the 2012 election cycle President Obama and his Republican challengers face numerous challenges such as revitalizing a stalled economic recovery, navigating a complex and changing…
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Values in Decision-making
We have failed to articulate and make explicit the values that currently drive our economic systems. The failure to do so has resulted in the set of systemic and interlinked…
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Water Security
Our wealthier, more populous and more climate variable world is fast becoming a more water insecure world. Water insecurity poses a real threat to the economic development and security of…
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Women’s Empowerment
Gender gaps in economic participation, political opportunity, education and health are well documented. No country has yet been able to close all the gaps, with substantial variation in their size…
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Youth Unemployment
Young people are one of the world’s most precious resources. The creation of opportunities for youth in the labour market and investment in their education and health are critical instruments…
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