The Survey on the Global Agenda 2014 retained much of the framework of the fully redesigned 2013 survey, but with innovative modifications and additions that further advance our knowledge about the challenges facing the Global Agenda Councils and the world. The 2014 survey included redesigned sections on Global trends, Regional challenges, Global governance, GAC Interconnectivity, and a new section on Global leadership.
In the updated Global trends section, respondents were asked to identify the most important global trend that will require the attention of world leaders in the next 12-18 months. They were then asked to identify and rank the significance of their top 10 out of a list of 20 global trends. The list of 20 trends was identified and refined through the Delphi Method which entailed drawing on structured panel discussions with members of the Global Agenda Councils and Global Shapers Community, as well as via our partnership with the Saïd Business School and Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. Respondents then answered follow-up questions and identified potential solutions to the top 10 trends they identified. The inclusion of an initial list of 20 global trends from which respondents could choose was an update to the 2013 survey design, in which respondents ranked a list of just 10 trends pre-identified through the Delphi Method.
In the updated Regional challenges section, as in 2013, respondents were asked to identify the most significant challenge that affects their region. This year, respondents then ranked the top three most significant challenges in their region out of a list of five region-specific challenges identified in collaboration with Forum’s regional teams. They then answered follow-up questions about the three regional challenges they identified.
The redesigned Global governance section shifted its focus to examine the effectiveness of global governance structures (i.e. UN, WTO, IMF, G-20) in addressing global challenges. The GAC Interconnectivity section was refined to help promote closer cooperation among the Councils throughout the year and at the Summit on the Global Agenda. Respondents were asked to identify the issues and trends that are most relevant to their Council in order to illuminate the natural linkages between various Councils.
The Survey on the Global Agenda 2014 introduced a new Global Leadership section. The new section examines the level of confidence survey participants have in world leaders and in leaders within eight key sectors in their home country (business, education, religion, national government, international organizations, news media, NGOs and civil society, and healthcare). Respondents answered questions about their general confidence in the leaders of each sector, as well as confidence questions specific to the function and role of the leaders of each sector. Responses to these questions were used to calculate the Global Leadership Index results reported on pp. 46-47 of the Outlook.
Index scores were calculated as follows:
First, sub-indices were calculated for each of the eight sectors by averaging the responses to the sector-specific follow-up questions and then averaging the resulting score with the general leadership confidence item for that sector. Next, to determine the strength of the linear relationship between confidence in leadership for each sector and overall leadership confidence, correlation coefficients were calculated for each of the sector sub-indices with the benchmark item “how much confidence do you have, in general, in leaders of [respondent’s country]?” Weights for each sector sub-index were then calculated by normalizing (i.e., converting to z-scores) each correlation coefficient, and then dividing each by a constant so the eight coefficients summed to 1.00. The eight resulting scores were then applied as weights to each respective sector sub-index. The resulting sum of the weighted sub-indices for each respondent constituted their Global Leadership Index score.