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  • Top 10 Trends of 2015
    • 1. Deepening income inequality
    • 2. Persistent jobless growth
    • 3. Lack of leadership
    • 4. Rising geostrategic competition
    • 5. Weakening of representative democracy
    • 6. Rising pollution in the developing world
    • 7. Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
    • 8. Intensifying nationalism
    • 9. Increasing water stress
    • 10. Growing importance of health in the economy
    • Immigration in focus: an overlooked trend?
  • Regional Challenges
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    • LGBT: moving towards equality
  • Future Agenda
    • Synthetic biology: Designing our existence?
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    • Deep sea mining: The new resource frontier?
    • Emerging nuclear powers: A safe path to energy security?
    • The evolution of monetary policy: A new era for central banks?
    • Mapping the future: The future of education
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  • About this report
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    • Making the Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015
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Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015   Emerging nuclear powers: A safe path to energy security?
Home
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015   Emerging nuclear powers: A safe path to energy security?
Home
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015 Home
  • Report Home
  • Top 10 Trends of 2015
    • 1. Deepening income inequality
    • 2. Persistent jobless growth
    • 3. Lack of leadership
    • 4. Rising geostrategic competition
    • 5. Weakening of representative democracy
    • 6. Rising pollution in the developing world
    • 7. Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
    • 8. Intensifying nationalism
    • 9. Increasing water stress
    • 10. Growing importance of health in the economy
    • Immigration in focus: an overlooked trend?
  • Regional Challenges
    • Regional Challenges: Middle-East & North Africa
    • Regional Challenges: Europe
    • Regional Challenges: Asia
    • Regional Challenges: North America
    • Regional Challenges: Sub-Saharan Africa
    • Regional Challenges: Latin America
    • Tension points: Assessing the state of geopolitics
  • Global leadership and governance
    • A call to lead: the essential qualities for stronger leadership
    • Global Leadership Index
    • New governance architecture: strategies to change the way we lead
    • LGBT: moving towards equality
  • Future Agenda
    • Synthetic biology: Designing our existence?
    • Brain-computer interaction: Transforming our networked future?
    • Deep sea mining: The new resource frontier?
    • Emerging nuclear powers: A safe path to energy security?
    • The evolution of monetary policy: A new era for central banks?
    • Mapping the future: The future of education
    • Mapping the future: The future of work
    • Mapping the future: The future of the internet
  • About this report
    • Welcome
    • Introduction
    • Making the Outlook on the Global Agenda 2015
    • Acknowledgements
  • Browse by Topic
    • Africa
    • Asia-Pacific
    • Brain Research
    • Climate Change
    • Corruption
    • Decarbonizing Energy
    • Economics and Finance
    • Economies
    • Education
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Employment, Skills and Human Capital
    • Environment and Sustainability
    • Europe and Eurasia
    • Future of Government
    • Global Economic Imbalances
    • Global Financial System
    • Global Governance
    • Global Health and Healthcare
    • Global Issues
    • Human Rights
    • Industries
    • Internet Governance
    • Latin America
    • Middle East and North Africa
    • Migration
    • North America
    • Nuclear Security
    • Oceans
    • Science and Technology
    • Security and Governance
    • Society and Human Development
    • Water
  • Top 10 Infographics
  • Download as PDF
  • Download Chinese language version as PDF
Image Map

Synthetic biology | Brain-computer interaction | Deep sea mining | Emerging nuclear powers | Evolution of monetary policy | Future of education | Future of work | Future of the internet 

Protesters gather near a nuclear power in Kudankulam, southern India © REUTERS

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  • Global Issues
  • Nuclear Security
  • Security and Governance

Author

birol   

Dr Fatih Birol

Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics, Economic Analysis Division, International Energy Agency (IEA), and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Future of Electricity

Author

birol   

Dr Fatih Birol

Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics, Economic Analysis Division, International Energy Agency (IEA), and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Future of Electricity


Demand for electricity in the emerging economies is growing very strongly – between 5% and 6% each year, on average, compared to 1% or less in developed economies – and will continue to rise in the decades ahead. Moreover, many of these same countries have goals to improve energy security and avoid emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants.

It’s impossible to rely solely on natural gas or sources of renewable energy to meet this demand. Nor is it possible to rely exclusively on coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.

From our past work it is clear that almost all of the increase in nuclear power capacity over the coming decades is set to come from emerging countries. There are three that are particularly crucial: China, India and Russia. Within the OECD, South Korea is the only country expected to see any notable expansion. There are also many other countries that are considering the introduction of nuclear power for the first time. Although significant caution should be exercised in assessing which might actually succeed and over what timeframe as doing so will require a lot of time, expertise and determination.

quoteleft

Safety is the dominant concern – safety in plant operation, safe radioactive waste disposal and safeguards against the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

quoteright

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With nuclear power, there is a need to improve confidence in the independence of regulatory oversight

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With nuclear power, there is a need to improve confidence in the independence of regulatory oversight
Countries pursuing an expansion of nuclear power face big challenges. Nuclear power plants have high upfront investment costs and long construction times, which creates particular issues in competitive markets where utilities face significant market and regulatory risk. Nuclear power also faces intense public concern about a wide range of issues. Safety is the dominant concern – safety in plant operation, safe radioactive waste disposal and safeguards against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. And perhaps most importantly, there is the need to improve confidence in the competence and independence of regulatory oversight. If these challenges are not adequately addressed, the nuclear component of future generation may be lower than many expect.

Our world is facing twin challenges of climate change and energy security. Nuclear power can be part of the solution and I believe it will remain an important part of the electricity generation mix in the decades to come in many countries.

The top 5 countries for primary energy consumption in 2013
(in million metric tonnes of oil equivalent)


Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014

 

Safeguarding nuclear material 

Author

sarkissia  

Dr Armen Sarkissian

President and Founder, Eurasia House International, and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Risk and Resilience

Author

sarkissia  

Dr Armen Sarkissian

President and Founder, Eurasia House International, and a Member of the Global Agenda Council on Risk and Resilience

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There is no way to prevent people learning how to build a nuclear power plant, or even how to make a bomb

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There is no way to prevent people learning how to build a nuclear power plant, or even how to make a bomb
You cannot stop the transmission of knowledge. There is no way that you can prevent people learning how to build a nuclear power plant, how to enrich uranium, or even how to make a bomb. If every nation is to have the right to use nuclear energy, there must be disciplined behaviour in its use, both in terms of safeguarding the environment and resisting the temptation to use it as a weapon. Beyond that, the greater challenge is to apply this discipline in a world that is increasingly unstable.

quoteleft

There is no way to prevent people learning how to build a nuclear power plant, how to enrich uranium, or even how to make a bomb.

quoteright

The key to ensuring this is to control and manage the materials that serve as nuclear fuel, such as uranium-235 and plutonium-239. We must reach a global consensus on how to manage these substances: it could be that a multinational company is empowered to control most of the nuclear fuel worldwide, which it then leases to each country, and when the fuel is spent, it is safely returned. This last stage is crucial, as some spent materials can be used for the production of nuclear arms.

In theory, such an arrangement is workable, but it’s up to the politicians to decide if we can reach that kind of agreement. To get to the negotiation table, we must first stabilize Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa; only then can we begin the necessary process of diplomacy and understanding. Because it goes without saying that this cannot be achieved without cooperation and consensus between the world’s superpowers.

How energy consumption changed around the world between 2010 and 2013


Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014

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