• Agenda
  • Initiatives
  • Reports
  • Events
  • About
    • Our Mission
    • Leadership and Governance
    • Our Members and Partners
    • Communities
    • History
    • Klaus Schwab
    • Media
    • Contact Us
    • Careers
    • World Economic Forum USA
    • Privacy and Terms of Use
  • EN ES FR 日本語 中文
  • Login to TopLink

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. By using our website you consent to all cookies in accordance with our updated Cookie Notice.

I accept
    Hamburger
  • World Economic Forum Logo
  • Agenda
  • Initiatives
  • Reports
  • Events
  • About
  • TopLink
  • Search Cancel

Report Home

<Previous Next>
  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2018
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2018
    • Evolving Risk Landscape, 2008-2018
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2018
  • Read the Report
  • Preface
  • Executive Summary
    • Arabic
    • Chinese
    • French
    • German
    • Portuguese
    • Spanish
  • Global Risks 2018: Fractures, Fears and Failures
  • Economic Storm Clouds
  • Future Shocks
    • Grim Reaping
    • A Tangled Web
    • The Death of Trade
    • Democracy Buckles
    • Precision Extinction
    • Into the Abyss
    • Inequality Ingested
    • War without Rules
    • Identity Geopolitics
    • Walled Off
  • Geopolitical Power Shifts
  • Hindsight
    • Antimicrobial Resistance
    • Youth Unemployment
    • Digital Wildfires
  • Risk Reassessment
    • Resilience in complex organizations
    • Cognitive bias and risk management
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018
    • Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 2018
  • Acknowledgements
  • [—divider—]
  • Press Release
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • [—divider—]
  • Download the Report
Global Risks Report 2018 Home Previous Next
  • Report Home
  • Explore the survey results
    • The Global Risks Landscape 2018
    • The Risks-trends Interconnections Map 2018
    • The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2018
    • Evolving Risk Landscape, 2008-2018
    • Global Risks of Highest Concern for Doing Business 2018
  • Read the Report
  • Preface
  • Executive Summary
    • Arabic
    • Chinese
    • French
    • German
    • Portuguese
    • Spanish
  • Global Risks 2018: Fractures, Fears and Failures
  • Economic Storm Clouds
  • Future Shocks
    • Grim Reaping
    • A Tangled Web
    • The Death of Trade
    • Democracy Buckles
    • Precision Extinction
    • Into the Abyss
    • Inequality Ingested
    • War without Rules
    • Identity Geopolitics
    • Walled Off
  • Geopolitical Power Shifts
  • Hindsight
    • Antimicrobial Resistance
    • Youth Unemployment
    • Digital Wildfires
  • Risk Reassessment
    • Resilience in complex organizations
    • Cognitive bias and risk management
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018
    • Appendix B: Global Risks Perception Survey and Methodology 2018
  • Acknowledgements
  • [—divider—]
  • Press Release
  • Shareable Infographics
  • Blogs and Opinions
  • [—divider—]
  • Download the Report

Appendix A: Descriptions of Global Risks and Trends 2018

Share

Global Risks

A “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.

To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks have been abbreviated in the figures throughout the report. The portion of the full name used in the abbreviation is in bold.

 

Global Risk Description
Economic RisksAsset bubbles in a major economyUnsustainably overpriced assets such as commodities, housing, shares, etc. in a major economy or region
 Deflation in a major economyProlonged near-zero inflation or deflation in a major economy or region
 Failure of a major financial mechanism or institutionCollapse of a financial institution and/or malfunctioning of a financial system that impacts the global economy
 Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and/or secure infrastructure networks (e.g. energy, transportation and communications), leading to pressure or a breakdown with system-wide implications
 Fiscal crises in key economiesExcessive debt burdens that generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises
 High structural unemployment or underemploymentA sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population 
 Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.)Large-scale activities outside the legal framework such as illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and/or organized crime that undermine social interactions, regional or international collaboration, and global growth
 Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease)Significant energy price increases or decreases that place further economic pressures on highly energy-dependent industries and consumers
 Unmanageable inflationUnmanageable increases in the general price levels of goods and services in key economies
Environmental RisksExtreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by extreme weather events
 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptationThe failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to mitigate climate change, protect populations and help businesses impacted by climate change to adapt
 Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine)Irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries
 Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, or geomagnetic storms
 Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.)Failure to prevent major man-made damage and disasters, including environmental crime, causing harm to human lives and health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment
Geopolitical RisksFailure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.)Inability to govern a nation of geopolitical importance as a result of weak rule of law, corruption or political deadlock. 
 Failure of regional or global governanceInability of regional or global institutions to resolve issues of economic, geopolitical or environmental importance
 Interstate conflict with regional consequencesA bilateral or multilateral dispute between states that escalates into economic (e.g. trade/currency wars, resource nationalization), military, cyber, societal or other conflict.
 Large-scale terrorist attacksIndividuals or non-state groups with political or religious goals that successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage.
 State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)State collapse of geopolitical importance due to internal violence, regional or global instability, military coup, civil conflict, failed states, etc.
 Weapons of mass destructionThe deployment of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials, creating international crises and potential for significant destruction
Societal RisksFailure of urban planning Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure that create social, environmental and health challenges
 Food crisesInadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition on a major scale
 Large-scale involuntary migrationLarge-scale involuntary migration induced by conflict, disasters, environmental or economic reasons
 Profound social instability Major social movements or protests (e.g. street riots, social unrest, etc.) that disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity
 Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi that cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance as a result of resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments) leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption
 Water crisesA significant decline in the available quality and quantity of fresh water, resulting in harmful effects on human health and/or economic activity
Technological RisksAdverse consequences of technological advancesIntended or unintended adverse consequences of technological advances such as artificial intelligence, geo-engineering and synthetic biology causing human, environmental and economic damage
 Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks (Critical information infrastructure breakdown)Cyber dependency that increases vulnerability to outage of critical information infrastructure (e.g. internet, satellites, etc.) and networks, causing widespread disruption
 Large-scale cyberattacksLarge-scale cyberattacks or malware causing large economic damages, geopolitical tensions or widespread loss of trust in the internet
 Massive incident of data fraud/theftWrongful exploitation of private or official data that takes place on an unprecedented scale

 

Trends

A “trend” is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.

 

TrendDescription
Ageing population Ageing populations in developed and developing countries driven by declining fertility and decrease of middle- and old-age mortality
Changing landscape of international governanceChanging landscape of global or regional institutions (e.g. UN, IMF, NATO, etc.), agreements or networks
Changing climateChange of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, in addition to natural climate variability
Degrading environment Deterioration in the quality of air, soil and water from ambient concentrations of pollutants and other activities and processes
Growing middle class in emerging economiesGrowing share of population reaching middle-class income levels in emerging economies
Increasing national sentiment Increasing national sentiment among populations and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political and economic positions
Increasing polarization of societiesInability to reach agreement on key issues within countries because of diverging or extreme values, political or religious views
Rising chronic diseasesIncreasing rates of non-communicable diseases, also known as “chronic diseases”, leading to rising costs of long-term treatment and threatening recent societal gains in life expectancy and quality
Rising cyber dependency Rise of cyber dependency due to increasing digital interconnection of people, things and organizations
Rising geographic mobility Increasing mobility of people and things due to quicker and better-performing means of transport and lowered regulatory barriers
Rising income and wealth disparity Increasing socioeconomic gap between rich and poor in major countries or regions
Shifting powerShifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies
Rising urbanizationRising number of people living in urban areas resulting in physical growth of cities
Back to Top
Subscribe for updates
A weekly update of what’s on the Global Agenda
Follow Us
About
Our Mission
Leadership and Governance
Our Members and Partners
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Communities
History
Klaus Schwab
Our Impact
Media
Pictures
A Global Platform for Geostrategic Collaboration
Careers
Open Forum
Contact Us
Mapping Global Transformations
Code of Conduct
World Economic Forum LLC
Sustainability
World Economic Forum Privacy Policy
Media
News
Accreditation
Subscribe to our news
Members & Partners
Member login to TopLink
Strategic Partners' area
Partner Institutes' area
Global sites
Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Open Forum
Global Shapers
Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship
EN ES FR 日本語 中文
© 2021 World Economic Forum
Privacy Policy & Terms of Service