Appendices:
Appendix A: Description of Global Risks, Trends and Emerging Technologies 2017
Global Risks
A “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.
| Global Risk | Description | |
|---|---|---|
| Economic Risks | Asset bubbles in a major economy | Unsustainably overpriced assets such as commodities, housing, shares, etc. in a major economy or region |
| Deflation in a major economy | Prolonged near-zero inflation or deflation in a major economy or region | |
| Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution | Collapse of a financial institution and/or malfunctioning of a financial system that impacts the global economy | |
| Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure | Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and/or secure infrastructure networks (e.g. energy, transportation and communications), leading to pressure or a breakdown with system-wide implications | |
| Fiscal crises in key economies | Excessive debt burdens that generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises | |
| High structural unemployment or underemployment | A sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population | |
| Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) | Large-scale activities outside the legal framework such as illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and/or organized crime that undermine social interactions, regional or international collaboration, and global growth | |
| Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease) | Significant energy price increases or decreases that place further economic pressures on highly energy-dependent industries and consumers | |
| Unmanageable inflation | Unmanageable increases in the general price levels of goods and services in key economies | |
| Environmental Risks | Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) | Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by extreme weather events |
| Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation | The failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to mitigate climate change, protect populations and help businesses impacted by climate change to adapt | |
| Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine) | Irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries | |
| Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms) | Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, or geomagnetic storms | |
| Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.) | Failure to prevent major man-made damage and disasters, including environmental crime, causing harm to human lives and health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment | |
| Geopolitical Risks | Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.) | Inability to govern a nation of geopolitical importance as a result of weak rule of law, corruption or political deadlock. |
| Failure of regional or global governance | Inability of regional or global institutions to resolve issues of economic, geopolitical or environmental importance | |
| Interstate conflict with regional consequences | A bilateral or multilateral dispute between states that escalates into economic (e.g. trade/currency wars, resource nationalization), military, cyber, societal or other conflict. | |
| Large-scale terrorist attacks | Individuals or non-state groups with political or religious goals that successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage. | |
| State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) | State collapse of geopolitical importance due to internal violence, regional or global instability, military coup, civil conflict, failed states, etc. | |
| Weapons of mass destruction | The deployment of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials, creating international crises and potential for significant destruction | |
| Societal Risks | Failure of urban planning | Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure that create social, environmental and health challenges |
| Food crises | Inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition on a major scale | |
| Large-scale involuntary migration | Large-scale involuntary migration induced by conflict, disasters, environmental or economic reasons | |
| Profound social instability | Major social movements or protests (e.g. street riots, social unrest, etc.) that disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity | |
| Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases | Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi that cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance as a result of resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments) leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption | |
| Water crises | A significant decline in the available quality and quantity of fresh water, resulting in harmful effects on human health and/or economic activity | |
| Technological Risks | Adverse consequences of technological advances | Intended or unintended adverse consequences of technological advances such as artificial intelligence, geo-engineering and synthetic biology causing human, environmental and economic damage |
| Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks | Cyber dependency that increases vulnerability to outage of critical information infrastructure (e.g. internet, satellites, etc.) and networks, causing widespread disruption | |
| Large-scale cyberattacks | Large-scale cyberattacks or malware causing large economic damages, geopolitical tensions or widespread loss of trust in the internet | |
| Massive incident of data fraud/theft | Wrongful exploitation of private or official data that takes place on an unprecedented scale |
Trends
A “trend” is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.
| Emerging Technology | Description |
|---|---|
| 3D printing | Innovations in printing using various types of materials to move beyond prototyping and towards increasingly distributed manufacturing and medical applications that range from a greater use of technologies such as contour crafting in construction to the opportunity to develop printed biological materials, such as organ tissues, bone and muscle |
| Advanced materials and nanomaterials | Innovation in chemistry and physics resulting in the creation of new material substances, smart materials, 2D materials and other breakthroughs in properties and fabrication ranging from thermoelectric properties and shape retention to magnetic and mechanical functionalities |
| Artificial intelligence and robotics | Advances in automated processes ranging from manufacturing to driverless vehicles and automated knowledge work, enabled by highly competent cyber-physical systems and machines that can substitute for human beings to complete various tasks most often associated with thinking, multitasking, and fine motor skills |
| Biotechnologies | Innovations in genome editing, gene therapies, and other forms of genetic manipulation and synthetic biology resulting in additions to the registry of sequenced species of animals as well as human DNA, the creation of previously non-existent organisms, and modifications to microbes and organisms for medical, agricultural and industrial applications, including integrating them with electronic and computing advancements |
| Energy capture, storage and transmission | Breakthroughs in energy technologies, including advanced batteries and fuel cells, orbiting solar arrays, tidal energy capture, wind and bioenergy, as well as advances in nuclear fusion containment, smart grid systems, wireless energy transfer, and increased fuel cell fabrication efficiencies |
| Blockchain and distributed ledger | Developments in cryptographic systems that manage and verify distributed transaction data on a public ledger, increasing transparency and securing an immutable record for application to cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as well as for verification of varieties of transactions across industries, especially in financial technologies (FinTech) |
| Geoengineering | Creation and development of technological processes that intercede in the Earth’s geological and climatic systems, ranging from land reclamation to atmospheric seeding in order to influence weather patterns or remove carbon dioxide |
| Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors | Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors, also known as the “Internet of Things”, combined with sophisticated large-scale data analytics that will connect, track and manage physical products, logistics systems, energy grids and more by sending and receiving data over widespread digital infrastructures |
| Neurotechnologies | Creation of new methods for insight into, and control of, the functionality and processing dimensions of the human brain, allowing for the ability to read, influence and communicate brain activity through various secondary technological dimensions such as smart drugs, neuroimaging, bioelectronic interfaces, machine-brain interfaces and brainwave decoding and manipulation |
| New computing technologies | Innovations in materials and assemblages used to process or store digital information, such as centralized cloud computing, quantum computing, neural network processing, biological data storage, and optical computing, including new software development, cryptography, and the cybersecurity processes associated with each |
| Space technologies | Technologies that can be used in space that will increase the ability of both public and private entities to access, explore, and create new forms of value such as microsatellites, reusable rockets, integrated rocket-jet engines, optical and imaging technologies, sensor developments, resource exploitation, laser and communications technologies, space exploration and habitat developments, and techno-scientific breakthroughs that are transferable to the marketplace |
| Virtual and augmented realities | Development of sophisticated immersive virtual environments that can range from heads-up displays and holographic readouts to fully mixed digital and physical environments and complete virtual worlds and interfaces |