Appendix A - Definitions of Global Risks 2014
| Global Risk | Description |
| Economic | |
|---|---|
| Fiscal crises in key economies | Excessive debt burdens generate rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and sovereign debt crises |
| Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution | A financial institution or currency regime of systemic importance collapses, with implications throughout the global financial system |
| Liquidity crises | Shortages of financial resources from banks and capital markets become extreme and recurring, while the ability to sell assets is reduced |
| Structurally high unemployment/ underemployment | A sustained high level of unemployment that is structural rather than cyclical in nature coincides with a rising skills gap and high underemployment, especially among youth populations |
| Oil-price shock to the global economy | Sharp and/or sustained oil price increases place further economic pressures on highly oil-dependent industries and consumers, while raising geopolitical tensions |
| Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure | Chronic failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and secure infrastructure networks leads to a major breakdown, with system-wide implications |
| Decline of importance of the US dollar as a major currency | A shift away from the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency impacts the global economic and financial system, and changes the geopolitical balance |
| Environmental | |
|---|---|
| Greater incidence of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, fires) | Property, infrastructure and environmental damage linked to development in hazard-prone areas increases, as does the frequency of extreme weather events |
| Greater incidence of natural catastrophes (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, geomagnetic storms) | Existing precautions and preparedness measures fail in the face of geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis or geomagnetic storms, causing widespread disruptions in interconnected supply chains and communication networks |
| Greater incidence of man-made environmental catastrophes (e.g. oil spills, nuclear accidents) | Existing precautions and preparedness measures fail to prevent man-made catastrophes, causing greater harm to lives, human health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment |
| Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (land and ocean) | Degradation of biodiversity results in severely depleted resources for industries such as fishing and forestry, with potentially irreversible consequences for the environment |
| Water crises | A significant decline in the quality and quantity of fresh water combines with increased competition among resource-intensive systems, such as food and energy production |
| Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation | Governments and businesses fail to enforce or enact effective measures to protect populations and to help businesses impacted by climate change to transition |
| Geopolitical | |
|---|---|
| Global governance failure | Weak or inadequate global institutions, agreements or networks, combined with competing national and political interests, impede attempts to cooperate on addressing global risks |
| Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance | One or more systemically critical countries experience significant erosion of trust and mutual obligations between states and citizens, leading to state collapse, internal violence, regional or global instability and, potentially, military conflict |
| Increasing corruption | The widespread and deep-rooted abuse of entrusted power for private gain (by businesses and public officials) undermines the rule of law and governance |
| Major escalation in organized crime and illicit trade | Highly organized and very agile global networks commit criminal offences while the illegal trafficking of goods and people spreads unchecked throughout the global economy |
| Large-scale terrorist attacks | Individuals or non-state groups successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage, which is particularly problematic when decentralized and widespread |
| Deployment of weapons of mass destruction | The availability of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials leads to major international crises |
| Violent inter-state conflict with regional consequences | International disputes escalate into armed conflicts |
| Escalation of economic and resource nationalization | States move unilaterally to ban imports or exports of key commodities, stockpile reserves and expropriate natural resources |
| Societal | |
|---|---|
| Food crises | Access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition becomes inadequate or unreliable |
| Pandemic outbreak | Inadequate disease surveillance systems, failed international coordination and the lack of vaccine production capacity lead to the uncontrolled spread of infectious disease |
| Unmanageable burden of chronic disease | Increasing burden of illness and long-term costs of treatment threaten recent societal gains in life expectancy and quality while overburdening strained economies |
| Severe income disparity | Widening gaps between the richest and poorest citizens threaten social and political stability as well as economic development |
| Antibiotic-resistant bacteria | Growing resistance of deadly bacteria to known antibiotics inhibits the ability to control deadly diseases |
| Mismanaged urbanization (e.g. planning failures, inadequate infrastructure and supply chains) | Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure amplify drivers of environmental degradation and cope ineffectively with migration, demographic and health challenges |
| Profound political and social instability | Military actions or aggressive foreign or trade policies on the part of global or regional powers disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations, investment and financial markets |
| Technological | |
|---|---|
| Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks | Systemic failures of critical information infrastructure (CII) and networks negatively impact industrial production, public services and communications |
| Escalation in large-scale cyber attacks | State-sponsored, state-affiliated, criminal or terrorist cyber attacks increase |
| Massive incident of data fraud/theft | Criminal or wrongful exploitation of private data takes place on an unprecedented scale |