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Somalia’s e-commerce businesses are rising against all odds
Monday 10th of December 2018
Abdi Addow likes to have oodkac for breakfast, the jerky-style beef cubes that Somalis usually eat with injera flatbread. Addow especially loves his mother’s serving, but since he doesn’t live with her in the Somali capital, he logs online and uses a third-party delivery service to bring it to him from her place.
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The challenges to manufacturing workers in the wake of globalisation
Friday 7th of December 2018
The impact of trade shocks on labour market shifts is usually studied in the context of re-training and social welfare frictions. Using evidence from Denmark, this column shows how workers can experience long-run reductions in earnings no matter how easy it is to change sector. A sudden and obligatory shift toward a new sector may, by its nature, generate some worker dissatisfaction.
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The new risks in risk regulation
Friday 7th of December 2018
The received wisdom among financial regulators is that they are better off being able to say, “We told you so” if something goes wrong, and that there is little downside in occasionally issuing dark warnings. So should we be genuinely anxious about a spate of recent warnings from central banks and international financial institutions?
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How intertwined supply chains can lead to economic shocks, and why we must protect against it
Friday 7th of December 2018
As global producers, service providers, and international financial institutions are becoming increasingly intertwined through expanding supply chains (Baldwin 2016), it is feared now more than ever that disastrous economic shocks can rapidly spread from country to country through these complex networks. The fragility of global production networks is particularly concerning as the frequency and severity of natural disasters is projected to increase due to climate change (Milly et al. 2002) and evolving seismic trends (Beroza 2012).
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Brexit has already hurt EU and non-EU exports by up to 13%
Thursday 6th of December 2018
Over the past few months, we have been investigating how the vote of June 23 2016 has since affected the values and patterns of Britain’s trade with major trading partners inside and outside the European Union. By comparing trade flows with a model of what UK trade flows would have looked like had the UK voted to stay in the EU, we can clearly see that British exports to both EU and non-EU countries have taken a hit.
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What do US-China tensions mean for Asia?
Thursday 6th of December 2018
There have been warnings from both the private and public sectors about the potential spillover effects of the ongoing trade war between the US and China. But frictions between the two sides go well beyond tariff disputes. The potential for trade tensions to expand into a political, as well as an economic, conflict is now looming.
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Why Indonesians fight like Avengers for globalization
Tuesday 4th of December 2018
It was a remarkable moment: during his speech at the World Economic Forum on ASEAN this September, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo said he was an Avenger, fighting for free trade. “I and my fellow Avengers stand ready to [keep] Thanos from wiping out half of the population,” he said. “We must prevent trade wars from becoming the infinity war.” (He didn’t say who Thanos was.)
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The US-China trade war reaches a ceasefire after Trump-Xi summit
Monday 3rd of December 2018
China and the United States agreed to a ceasefire in their bitter trade war on Saturday after high-stakes talks in Argentina between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, including no escalated tariffs on Jan. 1.
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A more stable EMU does not require a central fiscal capacity
Monday 3rd of December 2018
A central fiscal capacity is a recurring topic in discussions on reform of the Economic and Monetary Union, but no consensus on the usefulness and necessity of a such a capacity has been reached. This column, part of the Vox debate on euro area reform, argues that the potential stability benefits of a central fiscal capacity can be achieved through stronger financial market risk sharing and more effective use of fiscal stabilisers, without any additional fiscal risk sharing.
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6 ways China and the United States could jumpstart trade reforms
Monday 26th of November 2018
Whether they’re new best friends or estranged fellows, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have confirmed their bilateral meeting at the November G20 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. This will be a high-stakes encounter, as the future of US-China relations has not been so uncertain since President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972.
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Trade in Africa should be free, but it must be inclusive
Monday 26th of November 2018
Since 2000, the EU has spent nearly $1 trillion as part of an ambitious plan to unite a continent once troubled by conflict.
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Competition is driving down the cost of renewables. That’s good news for the planet
Friday 9th of November 2018
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not mince its words: its report published last month was “the final call”, it said. Keeping to the target of 1.5C of temperature increase above pre-industrial levels will mean “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society”.
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Why is private investment in public infrastructure declining?
Thursday 8th of November 2018
The use of public-private partnerships to build everything from airports to parking garages is an increasingly popular finance mechanism for governments that are strapped for cash. But private companies are increasingly less interested in investing in these types of ventures. Wharton finance professor Joao Gomes recently presented a seminar on Capitol Hill for the Penn Wharton Public Policy Initiative exploring the reasons why corporate investment in the public sector, which predictably declined during the Great Recession, has not rebounded as much as expected. He discussed the topic during a segment on the [email protected] radio show on SiriusXM. (Listen to the podcast using the player at the top of this page.)
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This is how honesty and trust can affect investment decisions
Monday 5th of November 2018
Corporate fraud and managerial deception have been pervasive and value-destroying in recent decades. This column analyses whether investors form views about a CEO’s honesty based on his or her previous actions, and how this affects investment decisions. A CEO who has resisted, at personal cost, engaging in earnings management is perceived as being more committed to honesty, which appeals to pro-social investors. Pro-self investors, on the other hand, value honesty when it comes to information regarding investment returns.
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Globalization 4.0 – what it means and how it could benefit us all
Monday 5th of November 2018
After World War II, the international community came together to build a shared future. Now, it must do so again. Owing to the slow and uneven recovery in the decade since the global financial crisis, a substantial part of society has become disaffected and embittered, not only with politics and politicians, but also with globalization and the entire economic system it underpins. In an era of widespread insecurity and frustration, populism has become increasingly attractive as an alternative to the status quo.
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Economists have put two basic theories of exchange rate equilibrium to the test
Friday 2nd of November 2018
Global integration has increased rapidly over recent decades, leaving basic theories of exchange rate equilibrium ripe for reconsideration. This column tests two such theories – purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity – using the case of the advanced, small open economy of Israel and the US. The results show that when the necessary conditions are met, the purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity relationships continue to hold in the short run.
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Investment to help women and girls has surged
Friday 2nd of November 2018
Investment that helps women and girls has surged to a record high in the past year and is on the cusp of going mainstream, according to organisers of an ethical investment summit.
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2018 was an historic year for the Korean Peninsula, but what lies ahead?
Thursday 1st of November 2018
In 2017, the Korean Peninsula seemed to be on the brink of war. The risk of disastrous human and economic consequences was high, not just for North and South Korea, but for their neighbours China and Japan, and for all related countries and companies.
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Here’s why the US has withdrawn from an historic 144 year-old treaty
Wednesday 24th of October 2018
The United States is planning to withdraw from the Universal Postal Union (UPU) – a United Nations agency dedicated to global cooperation on post. The White House has taken issue with the body’s negotiated rates for international delivery.
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This Dutch port is encouraging ships to invest in renewable power
Wednesday 24th of October 2018
In Rotterdam, ships from around the world cruise in and out of Europe’s busiest port, a bustling industrial hub that employs almost 200,000 people and produces 20 percent of the Netherlands’ climate-changing gases.
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This is why a US-China cold war probably won’t happen
Wednesday 24th of October 2018
It is often said that the US and China – superpowers at economic, geopolitical, and ideological loggerheads – are heading toward a new cold war. And the rhetoric – at least from one side – has come to resemble that of Winston Churchill’s 1946 “Iron Curtain” speech, one of the inaugural events of the Cold War. Just this month, US Vice President Mike Pence accused China of predatory economic practices, military aggression against the United States, and attempts to undermine US President Donald Trump.
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How big data can help us fight climate change faster
Friday 19th of October 2018
A new report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns us that “rapid, far reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” are required to limit global warming to 1.5C and avoid an irreversible natural tipping point.
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China’s economic growth is the weakest since the Credit Crunch
Friday 19th of October 2018
China’s economic growth cooled to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, with regulators pledging further policy support as a years-long campaign to tackle debt risks and the trade war with the United States began to bite.
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Who are the winners and losers in Africa’s Continental Free Trade area?
Wednesday 17th of October 2018
In March this year, the leaders of 44 African countries endorsed the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). Since then more countries, including South Africa, have joined in.
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An economist explains why trade deficits aren’t a bad thing
Tuesday 16th of October 2018
Most Americans seem to think international trade deficits are a bad thing.